The reason Iran has avoided attacking Israel so far

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Iranian missile

Historically, Iran relied on its regional proxies to dictate the tempo of escalation, while keeping hostilities away from its own borders.

By Hezy Laing

In the past week, Iran shattered a fragile detente by launching a massive wave of missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases and facilities across the Gulf, including in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, and Jordan.

These strikes have triggered air raid sirens, caused material damage, and resulted in injuries from falling debris during interceptions.

Simultaneously, the IRGC has intensified its campaign in the Strait of Hormuz, attacking commercial vessels, declaring the waterway closed to navigation, and threatening to halt all regional energy exports.

This dual-front assault represents a severe escalation, directly attacking the US military and global energy security by combining kinetic strikes on sovereign Gulf states with asymmetric naval warfare in the critical shipping lane.

Incredibly, during this entire time, Iran has not shot a single missile at Israel, perhaps its most hated enemy, as it has in the past.

Why?

Defense analysts note several main reasons for Tehran’s operational caution:

Failure and Degradation of Its Proxies

Historically, Iran relied on its regional proxies to dictate the tempo of escalation, while keeping hostilities away from its own borders.

Geopolitical assessments from The Heritage Foundation and the Alma Research Center point out that this buffer has been permanently disrupted.

With Hamas dismantled and Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure severely degraded, Iran can no longer hide behind its proxies.

Following intense IDF operations that eliminated over 5,000 terrorists and shattered their capabilities, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah has been left “begging for a ceasefire”.

Their Iranian patrons are panicking because “their threats have no actual backing in reality” once their primary operational weapon on Israel’s border was crushed.

Meanwhile Hamas has suffered catastrophic losses and has little access to new armaments.

Israeli experts argues that Iran is afraid to escalate its attacks on Israel because Tehran’s aggressive rhetoric has no actual backing in reality, its proxy network has been severely crippled, and it is terrified of devastating retaliation from both Israel and a heavily armed United States.

Asymmetry in Air Defense and Air Superiority

Military analysts at the RAND Corporation highlight a severe technological and operational mismatch between the two nations.

Despite the heavy volume of missile and drone salvos fired by Iran, Israel’s advanced Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome frameworks regularly intercept the vast majority of incoming threats, minimizing structural damage. In contrast, Iran’s domestic air defenses are today almost non-existent.

Defense experts at the Atlantic Council note that Israel possesses the intelligence and stealth capabilities to systematically penetrate Iranian airspace to strike critical infrastructure, including energy grids, refinement plants, and hardened nuclear enrichment facilities like Natanz.

Tehran has learned that distance no longer guarantees immunity. Any major attack means the war will be taken directly to Iran’s doorstep, exposing its home front to immediate retaliation.

Economic Devastation and Regional Blowback

The Iranian regime is bleeding cash after a brutal air war.

Despite being handed a lenient “soft landing” through international diplomatic ceasefires and temporary sanctions relief, Iran cannot risk an all-out war with Israel that would completely vaporize its economy, trigger domestic regime instability, or cause the permanent loss of its vital energy corridors.

Risk of Total Regime Collapse

But the ultimate driver behind Iranian strategic calculation is the survival of the Islamic Republic.

Analysts from the Deakin University Centre for Middle East Politics note that while Tehran relies heavily on aggressive rhetoric, the leadership “does not have a death wish.”

Experts from the Stimson Center and the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) emphasize that an all-out, uncalibrated attack would give Israel and the U.S. the ultimate justification to launch devastating decapitation strikes targeting Iran’s political command hierarchy and internal security apparatus, potentially triggering an uncontrollable domestic uprising.

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IN the summer of 2019, I was seated in the wine cellar of a walled Medieval town high above the Dordogne Valley of France, not far from Sarlat-la-Canéda, making phone calls, writing reports. I have given this story in other places and it appears as though you’re about to hear it again. Rob Skiba is a name you that you might be familiar with. Though he had made a name for himself as a Nephilim researcher, more recently Rob had taken a dive into the deep end of the pool via flat earth research. The recorded interviews I conducted between he and Rick Hummer, a fellow flat earth investigator and close friend of his, was published while still occupying that very wine cellar. Read all about it. Chicago Is Not a Mirage.

Word quickly spread. Within a few short weeks, dozens of flat earth researchers began accepting my invite for a private interview, if not a series of interviews. From a 17th-century tower built by King Louis XIV, and with a stunning view of the Alps, I sat down with Robbie Davidson, founder of the Flat Earth International Conferences, conducting multiple sessions. While staying in Dumfries, Scotland, David Weiss agreed to take part in the interviews, as did Bob Knodel of Globebusters. There were others. But when I asked the interviewees to discuss the moments that shaped their lives, among the many PSYOPs, false flag attacks, and hoaxes that were discussed, only these men committed commentary to the false 9/11 narrative.

The resulting recordings ballooned into The Unexpected Cosmology, a book which became a website and was even intended as an anthology. And of course, the following discourse was originally a chapter. It was Walt Disney who stated, “Disneyland will never be completed. It will continue to grow as long as there is imagination left in the world.” Those sentiments remain applicable here as well. American Sensationalism: The 9/11 Interviews was always intended to be expanded upon with the inclusion of new researchers. So I’m sorry to say the project became stagnant during the Covid-19 psychodrama. I took a break to tackle other projects. We lost Rob Skiba. Rob offered hours of private conversation regarding his life but we never got around to the big one. 9/11. It was in the cards. Sadly, Bob Knodel died soon afterwards. Voices are being squeezed from an entire generation. Gnosis passes with them.

In the aftermath, the FE community became fractured. People began going their separate ways. Robbie Davidson, among a noted few others who were interviewed for the project, got up and left the movement altogether. It is not my intent to erase his or the contributions of others if only brief. They came, they went, their testimonies remain.

The original vision may have hit roadblocks but it is not forgotten. I expanded this paper a few years later to include testimony from author Pauly Hart, a dear friend of mine. I had wanted to continue that trend every year thereafter but you know how it goes. For the 25th anniversary of the attack I have redirected my efforts to its first large scale expansion, including Andrew Hoy and Darrin Geisinger into the mix. Perhaps others will lend their experiences to the recorder in time.

The following is their report.

Read the 9/11 Interviews

Watch the Interviews