Historically, Iran relied on its regional proxies to dictate the tempo of escalation, while keeping hostilities away from its own borders.
By Hezy Laing
In the past week, Iran shattered a fragile detente by launching a massive wave of missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases and facilities across the Gulf, including in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, and Jordan.
These strikes have triggered air raid sirens, caused material damage, and resulted in injuries from falling debris during interceptions.
Simultaneously, the IRGC has intensified its campaign in the Strait of Hormuz, attacking commercial vessels, declaring the waterway closed to navigation, and threatening to halt all regional energy exports.
This dual-front assault represents a severe escalation, directly attacking the US military and global energy security by combining kinetic strikes on sovereign Gulf states with asymmetric naval warfare in the critical shipping lane.
Incredibly, during this entire time, Iran has not shot a single missile at Israel, perhaps its most hated enemy, as it has in the past.
Why?
Defense analysts note several main reasons for Tehran’s operational caution:
Failure and Degradation of Its Proxies
Historically, Iran relied on its regional proxies to dictate the tempo of escalation, while keeping hostilities away from its own borders.
Geopolitical assessments from The Heritage Foundation and the Alma Research Center point out that this buffer has been permanently disrupted.
With Hamas dismantled and Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure severely degraded, Iran can no longer hide behind its proxies.
Following intense IDF operations that eliminated over 5,000 terrorists and shattered their capabilities, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah has been left “begging for a ceasefire”.
Their Iranian patrons are panicking because “their threats have no actual backing in reality” once their primary operational weapon on Israel’s border was crushed.
Meanwhile Hamas has suffered catastrophic losses and has little access to new armaments.
Israeli experts argues that Iran is afraid to escalate its attacks on Israel because Tehran’s aggressive rhetoric has no actual backing in reality, its proxy network has been severely crippled, and it is terrified of devastating retaliation from both Israel and a heavily armed United States.
Asymmetry in Air Defense and Air Superiority
Military analysts at the RAND Corporation highlight a severe technological and operational mismatch between the two nations.
Despite the heavy volume of missile and drone salvos fired by Iran, Israel’s advanced Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome frameworks regularly intercept the vast majority of incoming threats, minimizing structural damage. In contrast, Iran’s domestic air defenses are today almost non-existent.
Defense experts at the Atlantic Council note that Israel possesses the intelligence and stealth capabilities to systematically penetrate Iranian airspace to strike critical infrastructure, including energy grids, refinement plants, and hardened nuclear enrichment facilities like Natanz.
Tehran has learned that distance no longer guarantees immunity. Any major attack means the war will be taken directly to Iran’s doorstep, exposing its home front to immediate retaliation.
Economic Devastation and Regional Blowback
The Iranian regime is bleeding cash after a brutal air war.
Despite being handed a lenient “soft landing” through international diplomatic ceasefires and temporary sanctions relief, Iran cannot risk an all-out war with Israel that would completely vaporize its economy, trigger domestic regime instability, or cause the permanent loss of its vital energy corridors.
Risk of Total Regime Collapse
But the ultimate driver behind Iranian strategic calculation is the survival of the Islamic Republic.
Analysts from the Deakin University Centre for Middle East Politics note that while Tehran relies heavily on aggressive rhetoric, the leadership “does not have a death wish.”
Experts from the Stimson Center and the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) emphasize that an all-out, uncalibrated attack would give Israel and the U.S. the ultimate justification to launch devastating decapitation strikes targeting Iran’s political command hierarchy and internal security apparatus, potentially triggering an uncontrollable domestic uprising.
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